An attempt to apply the Fibonacci Sequence to a prediction of the near-future performance of the Cleveland Browns NFL team.

Contents

Introduction

Since the Cleveland Browns were allowed to return to the NFL for the 1999 season their performance has been historically bad.¹ Their fans have seen the playoffs only twice since the 2002 season, in 2020 and 2023 – quite an achievement for a team with 12 consecutive losing seasons in the years from 2008 to 2019. Casting the net a little wider, none of Cleveland’s major league professional sports franchises won a championship during the 52 years between 1964 and 2016, bringing forth what became known as ‘The Cleveland Sports Curse’.²

This work analyses a recent performance subset at a season level and attempts to predict what might come next. The upheaval in coaching staff since 2018 and the constant turnover of playing personnel will not make detailed analysis easy, and so it will not be attempted.

Team history – upheaval

The Cleveland Browns American Football team played their first game in 1946 and until 1961 were tremendously successful, winning multiple AAFC and NFL championships. ³

Successful businessman Art Modell bought the franchise in 1961 and in early 1963 fired Head Coach Paul Brown, indisputably the most innovative and influential coach of his day, but a man whose authoritarian methods were causing growing discontentment within the playing personnel. In 1966 Modell engaged in a battle of wills with Jim Brown, arguably the greatest running back ever to play the sport, effectively forcing Brown into an early retirement. (In 1961, shortly after assuming control, he even fired the team’s mascot since 1946, ‘Brownie the Elf’).⁴

After a resurgence in the late 1980s but with an ever-increasing tide of debt sweeping over Modell, in 1995 he announced a move to a subsidised stadium in Baltimore for the 1996 season, and the intention to name the team the Baltimore Browns. The fans and City of Cleveland mounted a successful campaign to retain the Browns name and records but ultimately Modell did in fact relocate, founding the Baltimore Ravens – of which he gradually relinquished control until his passing in 2012.

A by-product of the unprecedented move by the NFL was the so-called Art Modell Law, designed to prohibit any team publicly subsidised by the city from moving away from Cleveland.⁵ The law has not been tested in Cleveland or elsewhere, and in fact did not stop the Browns owner announcing in 2025 a move from lakeshore Cleveland to the suburb of Brook Park.⁶

Lots of distractions are the order of the day in every sporting franchise. It’s beyond the scope of this article to discuss such things, but perhaps the biggest of them all in recent years is the highly-controversial 2022 hiring of quarterback Deshaun Watson. He was accused of multiple counts of sexual misconduct whilst a Houston Texans player⁷ – something that in any other public-facing arena might lead to termination or even discontinuation of the hiring process. Nevertheless the Browns paid him a contractually-guaranteed US$230 million over a 5-year contract, thus affecting talent acquisition at other positions – and alienating a sizeable proportion of the fan base.

Fibonacci

Fibonacci (also known as Leonardo Fibonacci, Leonardo Bonacci or Leonardo Pisano) was born in Pisa, Italy in 1170 and died around 1250. He was a talented mathematician, probably most famous for popularising the Arabic numbering system and the number sequence named after him – The Fibonacci Sequence or Fibonacci numbers.⁸

This author on the other hand, is not a talented mathematician. No, the author is a Browns fan. Nevertheless this work will link Fibonacci numbers with the performance of the Cleveland Browns onwards from the disastrous 2016 and 2017 seasons. Note, not attempt to link, actually link.

The Fibonacci Sequence is a numeric series in which each number is the sum of the 2 numbers listed before it – for example starting with 0 the sequence is as follows:

0, 1, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (1+2), 5 (2+3), 8 (3+5), 13 (8+5), 21 (8+13), 34 (13+21)…

It also links to natural ‘laws’ such as the 137.5 degree distribution of plant leaves around a central stem to maximise exposure to the sun⁹, but more popularly visible spirals such as a snail’s shell, a Romanesco cauliflower’s fractal spiral-shaped florets.

Mathematicians will find obvious flaws throughout this work, e.g. though the geometric rendering of the spiral can be closely linked to the Golden spiral, Fibonacci’s is composed of a series of 90° arcs within squares of increasing size. It’s not a ‘pure’, continuous geometric shape as it would be in nature or physics.

Literature Review

Although self-referential, the author wrote a small number of pieces on this, although for an audience that could be sympathetic – Browns fans.¹⁰

The first book the author read on the history of the Cleveland Browns was ‘False Start: How The New Browns Were Set Up To Fail’ by Terry Pluto.¹¹ It covers the years leading up to ‘The Move’ in 1995 to its 2004 publication date 5 years after ‘The Return’. It very effectively outlines the effect on the fans of the team owner’s move to another city and the attempted transfer of the Browns name and history away from Cleveland.

‘A Qualitative Inquiry on Schadenfreude by Sport Fans’ by Dalakas, Melancon & Sreboth¹² was the first paper the author read specifically linked to the Cleveland Browns. It partly investigates the relationship of fans with the team but mainly analyses in depth their feelings toward Art Modell on the occasion of his 2012 passing.

Methodology

The first guess at a link focusses on the graphical representation of the Fibonacci spiral – more specifically looking for a relationship between the direction of the spiral and the performance of the team.

After initial publication of the findings on the Reddit site a user opined that since Coach Stefanski (2020-2025) arrived it was a win-lose-win-lose sequence. Examining the data more closely provided a focus hidden until that point – it’s actually been win-lose-lose-win-lose-lose…

Here, an illustration of the Fibonacci spiral ranging from 1 to 21 has the image rotated 180 degrees to attempt to more closely match the team performance year-on-year.

The first table tabulates the years from 2016 unto the end of the 2024 season. Its construction fails to present a reproducible link between the Fibonacci spiral and the ‘direction’ the team was headed. It immediately starts poorly with an upwards trajectory for the disastrous 1 win 2016 season, and the even worse performance of 2017 (albeit a down arrow).

Although there is an occasional correlation between good and bad performance and some arrows there is enough variance that it cannot be used as a predictor.

Season	W-L-T	Fibonacci
2016	1-15-0	↖️
2017	0-16-0	↙️
2018	7-8-1	↘️
2019	6-10-0	↗️
2020	11-5-0	↖️
2021	8-9-0	↙️
2022	7-10-0	↘️
2023	11-6-0	↗️
2024	3-14-0	↖️
2025	Who knows?	↙️

Findings 1 – close but not a feasible strategy

Initial analysis:

2016

Is represented by the white square, and was bad for the team. Really bad. 1 win from 16 games played. The arc goes up a bit and to the left.

2017

Was unimaginably worse for Browns fans. Absolutely dire. So the arc in the magenta square drops to the left, representing the zero (0) wins from 16 games.

2018

Is when the author became a fan of the team. Although the purple arc goes downwards it goes to the right. 2018 brought 7 wins and a tie (!) from 16 games. It was a season of promise, of hope. And the owner dismissed Head Coach Hue Jackson, an act universally approved by fans.

2019

The forward progress regressed, to 6 wins from 16 games, so although the blue arc goes up and to the right it doesn’t fit this scheme proposed. 2019 was generally seen by Browns fans to be a disappointing aberration, so I’m giving Fibonacci a pass on this one. He’s no Nostradamus¹³ so couldn’t have foreseen Head Coach Freddie Kitchens – promoted beyond his ability at the time.

2020

Cyan, numbered ‘5’. The curve goes up and to the left. An 11 win season from 16 games in the Covid-19 affected year. The team vaulted into the playoffs, beating the longest-standing division rival Pittsburgh Steelers twice in succession, and only falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Playoffs. Probably the most enjoyable season of Browns football in the 21st century. Kevin Stefanski, Head Coach of the Year in his first season.

2021

It was expected that the team would capitalise on the preceding season. But no. The green arc goes downwards and to the left. Cleveland won 8 games from the expanded schedule of 17 games. . Injuries at crucial positions depleted the team and so disappointment was again the order of that year. And then quarterback Baker Mayfield was cut, an unfortunate result of injury and clashing personalities..

2022

Orange, down, right. Regression again, 7 wins from 17 games. Injuries plagued the squad.

2023

The team won 11 games from 17 and got into the playoffs falling immediately to the Houston Texans. Red square, upwards and to the right. It was achieved with a quarterback dragged off his sofa halfway through the year and plugged into the offense – Joe ‘Elite Dragon’ Flacco.

2024

Continuing the sequence, mere 3 wins from 17 games. So, what does the arc do with a small amount of extrapolation? Up, to the left. Colour? It can be imagined colour Black. Even accounting for the franchises’s quarter-billion dollar quarterback woes this was a bad one.

2025

Concluding this part, 2025 gave fans 5 wins and 12 losses, and the sacking of Head Coach Stefanski.

Findings 2 – a simpler and more accurate correlation to actual performance

A reworking of the method follows, focussing on the Fibonacci number it’s even f instead of the shape’s direction – and whether a season’s performance could be linked to that.

The author had considered trialling a reexamination of the Fibonacci spiral to fit the updated rationale, but rejected it simply because it’s not going to be easy.

The table below shows the observations for 2018 to 2025, the win-loss-tie record, the Fibonacci number and the initials of the head coach at the time. It also includes a row for the 2026 season, during which this paper is being compiled. The sequence starts at 1 to fit the data and so now omits 2016 and 2017.

Season	W-L-T	Fibonacci # (coach)
2018	7-8-1	1 (HJ, GW)
2019	6-10-0	1 (FK)
2020	11-5-0	2 (KS)
2021	8-9-0	3 (KS)
2022	7-10-0	5 (KS)
2023	11-6-0	8 (KS)
2024	3-14-0	13 (KS)
2025	5-12	21 (KS)
2026	Super Bowl!	34 (TM)

It transpires that between 2018 and 2025 (inclusive) and with a Fibonacci sequence beginning 1, every even Fibonacci number can be linked to a winning season.

Discussion

The author did not originally realise but Fibonacci and the Browns had been briefly discussed before their initial hypothesis formed. During the 2023 season’s week 13 Reddit user u/Ditty131 observed in their post ‘Fibonacci Sequence Wins’ that “The Browns’ wins this season follow the Fibonacci sequence when separated by the losses.”¹⁴

Summarising the post:

Week	Expected	Actual
1	–	1 win
2	–	Loss
3	–	1 win
4 (week 5 bye)	–	Loss
6 & 7	–	2 wins
8	–	Loss
9, 10 & 11	–	3 wins
12	Loss	2 losses (weeks 12 & 13)
13, 14, 15, 16, 17	5 wins	4 wins
18	Loss	Loss

It can be seen there is a very close match between the expectation and the reality – with only week 13’s loss departing from the sequence.¹⁵ One might offer the opinion that the number 13 was, that year, unlucky for the Browns.¹⁶ Luck, however, is beyond the scope of this paper, other than to opine that the Browns had none since the latter end of the nineteen-eighties.

Expanding on the Reddit user’s findings, it may be worthwhile to check the early season performance against a regular Fibonacci sequence or the even number variant proposed here, to ascertain:

1. If the sequence and performance is aligned it repeats predictably,
2. If the sequence and performance are not aligned does that indicate a good or a bad season.

This is also beyond the scope of this paper.

Conclusions

Success for the Browns is measured in a more limited fashion than by those teams regularly winning more games than they lose, and especially by those teams that make the playoffs.

Although the data set is limited to a very small sample size and is constrained to fit the hypothesis, even Fibonacci numbers can be linked directly to successful seasons for the Cleveland Browns.

Reflections

Given that the franchise’s 21st century performance could be at best described as ‘disappointing’ it’s only reasonable for the average fan to latch onto any or all chinks of light that present themselves. And here’s one, albeit the tiniest of glimmers.

Although Fibonacci numbers underpin a lot of the natural world and its systems it may be a touch optimistic to conclude that even a winning season let alone a Super Bowl appearance is possible during the 2026 season. The 2020 season started with a new head coach and ended with 2 playoff games – beating the arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the first game (and the last game of the regular season too). 2023 ran through 5 starting quarterbacks, settling on one previously thought to be washed up, and literally called up off his couch. The 2026 starts with a new head coach too.

Optimism isn’t something usually associated with a typical Browns fan – the outlook of knowledgeable fans and diehards alike is more akin to stoicism – the belief a Super Bowl win could happen one day, but in all likelihood will not.

Bibliography

1. ‘List of Cleveland Browns seasons’, Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Cleveland_Browns_seasons (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
2. ‘Cleveland sports curse’, Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_sports_curse(retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
3. ‘Cleveland Browns Playoff History’, Pro Football Reference link:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/playoffs.htm (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
4. ‘Who is Brownie the Elf? Inside the rise, fall and revival of the Browns’ beloved mascot’, 20 October 2024. ESPN link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34636773/who-brownie-elf-story-cleveland-browns-mascot (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
5. ‘2006 Ohio Revised Code – 9.67. Restrictions on owner of professional sports team.’ Justia Law link: https://law.justia.com/codes/ohio/2006/orc/jd_967-609.html (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
6. ‘Browns officially departing Cleveland for Brook Park in 2029’, BrownsWire link: https://brownswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/browns/2025/10/13/browns-officially-departing-cleveland-brook-park-2029/86680194007/ (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
7. ‘“Putting His Off-Field Issues Aside…”: Exploring Online Sport Fan Community Response to Allegations Against Deshaun Watson’ (abstract), Jacob Nason, 2023, Sage Journal link: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21674795231169041 (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
8. ‘Fibonacci Sequence’, Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_sequence (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
9. ‘Phyllotaxis: The Fibonacci Sequence in Nature | Divergence Angles and Phyllotactic Ratios’, The Myth of the Golden Ratio link: https://goldenratiomyth.weebly.com/phyllotaxis-the-fibonacci-sequence-in-nature.html (retrieved 2026-03-06) ↩
10. ‘Browns vs Fibonacci’, bazbt3 site link: https://bt3.com/2026/02/28/browns-vs-fibonacci-2026/ (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
11. ‘False Start, How the New Browns Were Set Up to Fail’, Terry Pluto, Gray & Company, pub. 30 Oct. 2004. Gray & Company link: https://www.grayco.com/product/false-start/ (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
12. ‘A Qualitative Inquiry on Schadenfreude by Sport Fans’, Vassilis Dalakas, Joanna Phillips Melancon, Tarah Sreboth, Journal of Sport Behavior, Vol. 38, No. 2 pages 161 to 179, pub. June 2015. ResearchGate link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280882733_A_Qualitative_Inquiry_on_Schadenfreude_by_Sport_Fans (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
13. ‘Nostradamus’, Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus (retrieved 2026-03-06). ↩
14. ‘Fibonacci Sequence Wins’ by Ditty131, 29 November 2023, Reddit link: https://old.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/186mju4/fibonacci_sequence_wins/ (retrieved 2026-03-06) ↩
15. ‘Cleveland Browns 2023 season | Regular season’. Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cleveland_Browns_season#Regular_season (retrieved 2026-03-06) ↩
16. ’13 (number) | Luck | Bad’. Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13_(number)#Bad (retrieved 2026-03-06) ↩